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Independent Submission                                      M. McFadden
Internet Draft                                 internet policy advisors
Intended status: Informational                             July 9, 2020
Expires: January 9, 2021



                        BCP72 - A Problem Statement
                draft-mcfadden-smart-threat-changes-01.txt


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Abstract

   RFC3552/BCP72 describes an Internet Threat model that has been used
   in Internet protocol design. More than sixteen years have passed
   since RFC3552 was written and the structure and topology of the
   Internet has changed. With those changes comes a question: has the
   Internet Threat Model changed? Or, is the model described in RFC3552
   still largely accurate?  This draft attempts to describe an non-
   exhaustive list of changes in the current threat environment. It
   finds that there are both qualitative and quantitative differences
   from the environment described in RFC3552 and is intended as input
   to the IAB program on the Internet threat model started in 2020.

Table of Contents


   1. Introduction...................................................2
   2. BCP72 Threat Model.............................................3
      2.1. BCP72 Passive Attacks.....................................3
      2.2. BCP72 Active Attacks......................................4
   3. Changes to the Attack Landscape................................4
      3.1. Quantifiable Changes......................................4
      3.2. Qualitative Changes.......................................5
      3.3. Data at Rest..............................................6
   4. Observations...................................................7
   5. Problem Statement..............................................8
   6. Security Considerations........................................8
   7. IANA Considerations............................................8
   8. References.....................................................8
      8.1. Normative References...........Error! Bookmark not defined.
      8.2. Informative References....................................8
   9. Acknowledgments................................................9

1. Introduction

   [RFC3552] describes an Internet threat model. According to that RFC
   the threat model "describes the capabilities that an attacker is
   assumed to be able to deploy against a resource. It should contain
   such information as the resources available to an attacker in terms
   of information, computing capability, and control of a system."

   In 2020, the IAB approved an IAB program on the Internet threat
   model. One of its goals was to explore how the world has changed in
   terms of threats experienced and how protocol endpoints are
   implemented and deployed.  During early discussions for that IAB
   program - called model-t - a natural question was raised: has the



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   Internet Threat Model really changed?  Or, is the model described in
   RFC3552 still largely accurate?

   The purpose of this draft is to examine the threat landscape of the
   contemporary Internet and answer those questions.  The draft can be
   used as input into the IAB's model-t process for documenting why an
   update to BCP72 might be needed.

   Reconsideration of the guidelines for writing Security
   Considerations sections of RFCs is not in scope for this memo.

2. BCP72 Threat Model

   BCP72's threat model divides attacks based on the capabilities
   required to mount the attack.  In particular, it divides attacks
   into two groups: passive attacks where an attacker has only limited,
   or read-only, access to the network; and active attacks where the
   attacker has the resources available to write to the network.  BCP72
   is careful not to locate the attack.  The attacks can come from
   arbitrary endpoints. It's worth noting that dividing the threat
   model in this way also allows for the model to incorporate attacks
   that come from resources not at endpoints. In fact, an entire
   subsection of the BCP discusses on-path versus off-path attacks.

2.1. BCP72 Passive Attacks

   BCP72 describes passive attacks as those in which an attacker "reads
   packets off the network but does not write them."  It then gives
   some specific examples including password sniffing, attacks on
   routing infrastructure, and unprotected wireless channels.

   The description in BCP72 tacitly assumes that the attacker is in
   control of a single resource.  For example, the first type of
   passive attack considered is one in which an attacker uses read-only
   access to packets to extract otherwise private information.  BCP72
   discusses the problems encountered when packets are transported
   without some form of transport or application layer security.

   BCP72 also makes note of offline cryptographic attacks in which an
   attacker has made offline copies of packets that have been read off
   the network. The attacker then mounts a cryptographic attack on
   those packets in order to extract confidential information from them
   offline.






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2.2. BCP72 Active Attacks

   BCP72 says, "when an attack involves writing data to the network, we
   refer to this as an active attack."  In this case, the BCP discusses
   spoofing packet replay attacks, message insertion, deletion and
   insertion, man-in-the-middle, as well as a Denial of Service attack.

   In each of these cases the BCP suggests either mitigations or
   descriptions of what technologies could have been used to avoid the
   weakness.

3. Changes to the Attack Landscape

3.1. Quantifiable Changes

   In the period since 2003, one dramatic change is the number of
   attacks seen.  Published studies [I-D.lazanski-smart-users-internet]
   show orders of magnitude increases in the number of devices
   compromised, scale of privacy breach, and the number of attacks
   taking place. Recent studies show that the vast majority of attacks
   come from attackers using automated, distributed tools.  This makes
   a threat model that is built around the notion of a single attacker
   inapplicable in the current Internet. It's worth noting that BCP72
   does reference the concept of distributed denial of service (DDoS),
   however its focus is on single attackers either on or off path.

   Studies also show that certain well-known ports [IANA-WKP] are the
   primary targets for this large jump in automated attacks.  Ports
   445, 22, 23, and 1433 make up 99% of the targets.

   The growth in the attacks on Telnet [RFC854] is a reflection of
   another development in the public Internet: the growth in numbers of
   constrained devices.  Endpoints that are not capable of supporting
   endpoint protection software, effective encryption, or proper
   authentication have proliferated on the public Internet.  That many
   of these devices do not have facilities for either self-protection
   [CLESS] or protecting against becoming a threat on their own has
   been documented in an IAB Workshop [IAB-IOT]. The greater number of
   improperly protected devices has the potential to amplify attacks
   that use them as sources for attacks on the rest of the Internet
   ecosystem.

   Since 2003, there have been a variety of studies examining the
   growth in the number of devices connected to the Internet.  At the
   time of writing, one estimate is that the difference between the
   number of devices connected in 2003 and 2020 is in the region of 22
   billion.  The sheer quantity of devices means that the Internet's


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   attack surface is significantly expanded.  Quantitative surveys also
   indicate that the greatest growth is in so-called enterprise IoT and
   household automation.  The security properties of these endpoints
   are substantially different from hosts that made up the majority of
   the Internet in 2003. [I-D.taddei.cless.smart.introduction]

   Another important quantitative change to the structure of the
   Internet is the consolidation of its infrastructure.  While BCP72 is
   certainly correct in its focus on the technologies and protocols
   that can be exploited by attackers, it is hard to ignore the fact
   that the threat landscape has been affected by the emergence of
   consolidation.  One example of this would be commercial or
   governmental surveillance capabilities. In an environment where
   there are a small number of very large entities that control the
   fabric of connectivity and content, the threat landscape is affected
   by the fact that it may be easier to exert control and implement
   attacks on a small number of organizations.

3.2. Qualitative Changes

   The Internet in 2003 had a relatively small number of types of
   hosts. The client/server model of computing was dominant at that
   time and endpoints were relatively homogeneous.

   The diversity of deployment is an important part of the contemporary
   Internet landscape.  Not only is there a measurable and huge
   increase in the number of endpoints (greatly increasing the attack
   surface), but there is rich diversity in the capacity, connectivity,
   purpose of those endpoints.  As a result, while the number of
   protocols may have not increased exponentially, the kinds of devices
   that can be sources or targets of exploits has increased
   significantly.

   The threat landscape is also affected by the balance between
   convenience versus protection from threats.  Applications and
   services fight for market and mind share by being the easiest to
   adopt, install and use. Many users treat security and protection in
   the same way that they treat personal health - they ignore it until
   there is a serious problem and then expect the problem to be
   mitigated quickly.

   The class of attackers has changed as well. In 2003, advanced
   persistent attacks hadn't yet been given that name and the estimated
   monetary loss to attackers was estimated to be less than $1 billion
   USD.  The emergence of scripted and other automated tools has
   changed the landscape dramatically.  In 2019, one estimate of losses
   due to network based attacks was in excess of $315 billion.  This is


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   the direct result of the speed, financing and flexibility of those
   doing the attacking. [I-D.lazanski-smart-users-internet]

   It is true that, since BCP 72 was published there have been
   significant improvements to communications security.  This includes
   securing the transport layer through protocols such as TLS 1.3,
   HTTP/2 and secure SMTP.  However, secure transport does not prevent
   rogue applications from executing attacks even when secure transport
   is in place.  An example of this happens when VPNs themselves
   examine or exploit traffic rather than do what they are advertised
   to do.

   Recent experience tells us that the Internet has evolved from
   primarily supporting unidirectional, two-party data flows to
   supporting both two-party and multi-endpoint communications. This
   trend is especially seen in the move toward large-scale, work from
   home models where multiparty communication is taken as a fundamental
   use case. The implications of this evolution on the threat model
   should be a part of any reconsideration of BCP72.

   One of the other crucial changes to the Internet is the rise of the
   application. Apps do everything for themselves that they can so they
   do, for example, DoH [RFC8484], encrypt on their own and make
   changes to the way the application interfaces with the Internet. It
   used to be that applications simply relied on lower layers of the
   stack for their services. This is no longer always the case and the
   implications of this on the threat model may be that the nature and
   platforms for attacks has significantly changed.

3.3. Data at Rest

   The Internet Threat model in BCP72 primarily speaks to data being
   transmitted, transited or received over the network.  More recent
   approaches to providing services over the Internet involve
   intermediate nodes that may redirect, manipulate or store traffic.
   While technologies such as exchange points may be seen to simply
   part of the fabric between senders and receivers, the insertion of
   content networks, caches and traffic analyzers has become
   ubiquitous.

   These middle boxes play an important role in content provision,
   analysis and security in today's Internet. They were in limited use
   when BCP72 was published. The importance of middleboxes is such
   that, when protocols are developed that effectively route around
   them, operators and content providers sometimes object.




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   Any contemporary Internet threat model must go beyond the threats to
   traffic as it moves from Alice to Bob.  Beyond intermediaries, the
   more personal digital devices there are, the more difficult it is to
   control and protect them.  The threat model should also include
   attacks that take place when the data is at rest or being
   manipulated for operational reasons. Observations

   If the IAB's Model T program finds that there have been both
   quantitative and qualitative changes to the Internet threat model,
   then perhaps it would be time to consider revising BCP72 to reflect
   those changes.  In this case the IAB should provide some initial
   assistance to the IETF on how to proceed with the revision.  Others
   have argued that the end-to-end architecture model of the Internet
   cannot be understood by just considering all of the protocol layers
   up to the application layer. [I-D.arkko-arch-internet-threat-model]
   In any case, it seems that there are significant changes in the
   architecture and service model of the Internet. Those significant
   changes may mean that significant changes need to be made in any
   revision to the threat model documented in RFC4552.

   In addition, BCP72's concentration on the communication channel
   fails to account for two of the central developments of the Internet
   in the last ten years: the rise of the application as the endpoint
   and the diversity of endpoints that are publicly connected.

   It might also be observed that there have already been limited
   attempts to reconsider BCP72's threat model.  As an example, the
   Same-Origin Policy detailed in [RFC6454] shows how an application-
   layer protocol can protect itself against certain kinds of attacks
   based on the concept of origin (the determination and use of an
   origin URI).

   Another change is the emergence of state sponsored attacks on both
   endpoints and infrastructure. These attacks are quite different in
   both capability and intensity compared to the threats seen in 2003.
   A case study of these types of attacks is explored in [I-D.draft-
   paine-smart-indicators-of-compromise].

   Finally, protection from phishing attacks in the presence of certain
   implementations of IDNA means that applications themselves are
   implementing their own protections against certain types of attacks.
   This is another example of how the application layer imposes
   controls on an otherwise secure communication channel.

   These are intended as only examples of how the landscape has
   changed. It seems clear that many more changes exist and need to be
   researched and documented.


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4. Problem Statement

   BCP72 is an accurate reflection of the security threat landscape at
   the time which it was written.  While the work of the IAB program on
   the Internet threat model is essential, a revision to RFC3552 is in
   the remit of the IETF.

   BCP72 represents a too narrow view of the Internet's threat
   landscape. An update is needed to:

     . Reflect the diversity of endpoint deployment on the Internet;

     . Document the impact of application-based security on the more
        narrow communication channel model (possibly: consideration of
        data in use in addition to data in motion);

     . Account for data at rest as part of the model as well as data
        in motion;

     . Reflecting on the how the growth of the number of devices
        connected affects the attack surface for the Internet at large;

     . Research by the IAB and others on how a new, contemporary
        threat model might be described and communicated to protocol
        designers and others; and,

     . Make constructive suggestions for an approach (or, methodology)
        for the IETF to revise BCP72.

5. Security Considerations

   This document is entirely about security on the Internet and is
   intended as input into the IAB's Model T work.

6. IANA Considerations

   The memo has no actions for IANA.

7. References

7.1. Informative References

   [RFC854] Postel, J., Reynolds, J., "Telnet Protocol Specification,"
   RFC854, https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc854





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   [RFC3552] Rescorla E., Korver, B., IAB, "Guidelines for Writing RFC
   Text on Security Considerations," BCP 72, RFC 3552,
   https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc3552

   [RFC6454] Barth, A., "The Web Origin Concept," ISSN: 2070-1721, RFC
   6454, https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc6454

   [RFC8484] Hoffman, P., McManus, P., "DNS Queries over HTTPS (DoH),"
   ISSN: 2070-1721, RFC 8484, https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc8484

   [I-D.arkko-arch-internet-threat-model] Arkko, J., "Changes in the
   Internet Threat Model", draft-arkko-arch-internet-threat-model-01
   (work in progress), July 2019.

   [I-D.lazanski-smart-users-internet]  Lazanski, D., "An Internet for
   Users Again", draft-lazanski-smart-users-internet-00 (work in
   progress), July 2019.

   [I-D.paine-smart-indicators-of-compromise-00] Kaine, K., Whitehouse,
   O., "Indicators of Compromise and Their R?le in Attack Defense,"
   https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-paine-smart-indicators-of-
   compromise-00 March 2020.

   [IAB-IOT] Jimenez, J., Tschofenig, H., Thaler, D., "Report from the
   Internet of Things (IoT) Semantic Interoperability (IOTSI) Workshop
   2016," https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-iab-iotsi-workshop-02 (work
   in progress), July 2018.

   [IANA-WKP] "Service Name and Transport Protocol Port Number
   Registry," https://www.iana.org/assignments/service-names-port-
   numbers/service-names-port-numbers.xhtml

8. Acknowledgments

   This document was prepared using 2-Word-v2.0.template.dot.














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Authors' Addresses

   Mark McFadden
   Internet policy advisors llc
   513 Elmside Blvd
   Madison WI 53704 US

   Phone: +1 608 504 7776
   Email: mark@internetpolicyadvisors.com








































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